Can Solar Cycle 25 Be a New Dalton Minimum?

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dc.authorid0000-0003-0185-190Xen_US
dc.authorid0000-0003-4076-3881en_US
dc.authorid0000-0003-4224-7039en_US
dc.authorscopusid57204656002en_US
dc.authorscopusid57204652745en_US
dc.authorscopusid55965642200en_US
dc.authorwosidDXX-6415-2022en_US
dc.authorwosidFVE-7921-2022en_US
dc.authorwosidGDU-5541-2022en_US
dc.contributor.authorÇoban, Gani Çağlar
dc.contributor.authorRaheem, Abd-ur
dc.contributor.authorÇavuş, Hüseyin
dc.contributor.authorAsghari-Targhi, Mahboubeh
dc.date.accessioned2022-08-10T12:48:45Z
dc.date.available2022-08-10T12:48:45Z
dc.date.issued2021en_US
dc.departmentEnstitüler, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, Fizik Ana Bilim Dalı
dc.departmentFakülteler, Fen Fakültesi, Fizik Bölümü
dc.description.abstractThe aim of this study is to predict solar activity for the next 10 years (Solar Cycle 25) using a deep learning technique known as a stateful Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. To achieve this goal the number of daily sunspots observed by the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) organization from 1945 to 2020 is used as training data for a stateful LSTM model. Time slices are produced by dividing the data between 1945–2020; then data are predicted and examined for the test years of the network trained on these time slices. The mean and smoothed values are calculated from the estimated daily data, compared with the actual mean, and smoothed values, including standard deviations, and the prediction accuracy of the model is examined. Finally, the number of daily sunspots for 10 years of Cycle 25 is estimated. The results are discussed by calculating the mean and smoothed values. The predicted Solar Cycle 25 shows features of a new Dalton Minimum together with Cycle 24. We conclude that Cycle 25 will be the marker of a new Dalton Minimum period.en_US
dc.identifier.citationCoban, G. C., Raheem, A., Cavus, H., & Asghari-Targhi, M. (2021). Can Solar Cycle 25 Be a New Dalton Minimum? Solar Physics, 296(11). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-021-01906-1en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11207-021-01906-1
dc.identifier.endpage15en_US
dc.identifier.issn0038-0938
dc.identifier.issn1573-093X
dc.identifier.issue11en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85118761002
dc.identifier.startpage1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-021-01906-1
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12428/3653
dc.identifier.volume296en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000714364200001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.institutionauthorÇoban, Gani Çağlar
dc.institutionauthorRaheem, Abd-ur
dc.institutionauthorÇavuş, Hüseyin
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.relation.ispartofSolar Physicsen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.relation.tubitakinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/TUBITAK/SOBAG/117F336
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectSolar Cycleen_US
dc.subjectSunspot Numberen_US
dc.subjectDeep Learningen_US
dc.subjectLSTMen_US
dc.subjectDalton Minimumen_US
dc.titleCan Solar Cycle 25 Be a New Dalton Minimum?
dc.typeArticle

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