Can Solar Cycle 25 Be a New Dalton Minimum?
Yükleniyor...
Tarih
2021
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Springer
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
The aim of this study is to predict solar activity for the next 10 years (Solar Cycle 25) using
a deep learning technique known as a stateful Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network.
To achieve this goal the number of daily sunspots observed by the American Association
of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) organization from 1945 to 2020 is used as training
data for a stateful LSTM model. Time slices are produced by dividing the data between
1945–2020; then data are predicted and examined for the test years of the network trained
on these time slices. The mean and smoothed values are calculated from the estimated daily
data, compared with the actual mean, and smoothed values, including standard deviations,
and the prediction accuracy of the model is examined. Finally, the number of daily sunspots
for 10 years of Cycle 25 is estimated. The results are discussed by calculating the mean and
smoothed values. The predicted Solar Cycle 25 shows features of a new Dalton Minimum
together with Cycle 24. We conclude that Cycle 25 will be the marker of a new Dalton
Minimum period.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Solar Cycle, Sunspot Number, Deep Learning, LSTM, Dalton Minimum
Kaynak
Solar Physics
WoS Q Değeri
Q2
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
296
Sayı
11
Künye
Coban, G. C., Raheem, A., Cavus, H., & Asghari-Targhi, M. (2021). Can Solar Cycle 25 Be a New Dalton Minimum? Solar Physics, 296(11). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-021-01906-1
