Geopolitical Risk and Türkiye's Tourism Growth: Testing a Shifting Relationship

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dc.contributor.authorUrsavas, Ugur
dc.contributor.authorYilanci, Veli
dc.contributor.authorGhosh, Sudeshna
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-29T02:57:27Z
dc.date.available2025-05-29T02:57:27Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentÇanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis study analyses the relationship between tourism and economic growth in T & uuml;rkiye, taking a novel approach by considering the impact of geopolitical risk. Using monthly data from 1996 to 2022, we disaggregate tourism markets based on countries' geopolitical risk levels. By employing a fuzzy clustering technique, we reveal how the tourism-growth nexus varies across different geopolitical risk clusters. Furthermore, we utilise Fourier-Toda-Yamamoto Causality test to analyse the causal relationship across short, medium, and long-term horizons. Our findings reveal a consistent tourism-led growth pattern in all countries regardless of geopolitical risk, highlighting the significant role of tourism in the Turkish economy. However, the study uncovers crucial nuances within the tourism-growth relationship, demonstrating a feedback effect in the short run and varying causal relationships across different time horizons. This study contributes to the literature by explicitly incorporating geopolitical risk into the analysis of tourism-led growth, providing valuable insights for policy makers in T & uuml;rkiye.
dc.identifier.doi10.24818/18423264/59.1.25.07
dc.identifier.endpage119
dc.identifier.issn0424-267X
dc.identifier.issn1842-3264
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105001264300
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ3
dc.identifier.startpage104
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/59.1.25.07
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12428/30068
dc.identifier.volume59
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001455363900007
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherEditura Ase
dc.relation.ispartofEconomic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20250529
dc.subjecttourism-led growth hypothesis
dc.subjectgeopolitical risk
dc.subjectfuzzy clustering
dc.subjectFourier causality
dc.subjectT & uuml;rkiye
dc.titleGeopolitical Risk and Türkiye's Tourism Growth: Testing a Shifting Relationship
dc.typeArticle

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