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Do uncertainties and risks have an impact on cryptocurrency returns? Evidence from the symmetric and asymmetric fourier quantile causality test
(Univ Chile Dept Economics, 2025) Kılcı, Esra N.; Yılancı, Veli
This paper explores the impact of uncertainties and risks on the returns of cryptocurrencies by considering the two dimensions of uncertainty sourcing from economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Therefore, we analyze whether there is a causality from the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) to the cryptocurrency returns in the period from 2015:01 through 2023:05. In our analysis, we use the GEPU and GPR indexes as independent variables and the historical values of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, Monero, and Dash as dependent variables. We employ the Fourier augmented causality test considering the original series, and also the positive and negative components of the series. Our findings reveal that the GPR has predictive power for all cryptocurrencies while GEPU has not predictive power for only Bitcoin. Furthermore, we find evidence of the causality nexus that runs from negative shocks of GEPU to the negative shocks of Litecoin and Ripple, and from the negative shocks of GPR to the negative shocks of Litecoin and Monero indicating when there are significant decreases at the GEPU, these values can be used to predict the decreases of Litecoin and Ripple. Similarly, we can also imply it for the causality relationship from GPR to Litecoin and Monero. When we consider there might be a causal relationship not only between shocks of the same type but also between different types of shocks we find that there is unidirectional causality from negative shocks of GEPU to the positive shocks of Dash, Ethereum, and Monero at the high return phase, and from positive shocks of GEPU to the negative shocks of Ethereum, and from positive shocks of GPR to the negative components of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple at the bearish market conditions.
A Revisit of Tourism and Growth Nexus in the Provinces of China based on Bootstrap Panel Causality Test with a Fourier Function
(Inst Economic Forecasting, 2024) Chang, Tsangyao; Yılancı, Veli; Wang, Mei-Chih; Min, Jennifer
In this study, we collect annual data for 30 regions in China using tourism receipts and gross domestic product over the period of 1980-2020. Empirical results from Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality test with a Fourier function, which consider both cross-sectional dependence and multiple smooth breaks, support the evidence of feedback hypothesis in most of the regions except for Jilin that we find the validity of tourism-led-growth hypothesis, Shanxi, and Qinghai where we find the supportive evidence of growth-led-tourism hypothesis, and for Gansu, Ningxia, and Xinjiang where we find the strong evidence of neutrality hypothesis. These results further show the importance of incorporating cross-sectional dependence and smooth breaks in testing the Granger causality. Our empirical results have important policy implications for the regional governments in China conducting tourism policy to sustain its regional economic growth.
The Strategic Role of Circular Economy Innovations and Stakeholder Engagement in Advancing Responsible Production and Consumption
(Wiley, 2025) KaoDui, Li; Kongkuah, Maxwell
As the urgency of global sustainability goals intensifies, achieving responsible production and consumption (RPC) has become a critical priority, especially in emerging markets where economic growth must be balanced with environmental stewardship. Businesses play a pivotal role in advancing sustainability, and understanding how governance practices influence RPC is essential for aligning corporate strategies with global objectives. This study investigates how circular economy innovations and stakeholder engagement moderate the link between indigenous directors and RPC. Using secondary data from 439 manufacturing firms across MENA countries between 2012 and 2022, we employed the method of moments quantile regression (MMQR) and fixed effects estimations, addressing endogeneity through GMM modeling and propensity score matching techniques. Our findings demonstrate that indigenous directors significantly enhance RPC across all quantiles. Additionally, circular economy innovations not only advance RPC but also amplify the positive effects of indigenous directors on sustainable practices. Stakeholder engagement further strengthens this relationship, particularly in higher quantiles, underscoring the importance of inclusive governance for achieving sustainability goals. These insights provide actionable implications for business leaders and policymakers, particularly in the MENA region, by emphasizing the strategic integration of Indigenous leadership and circular economy innovations into corporate governance. This study offers a framework for aligning business strategies with global sustainability objectives, notably SDG 12 while also contributing to the literature on strategic management and sustainability. By highlighting the role of Indigenous leadership in driving sustainable practices, this research provides valuable guidance for firms and policymakers seeking to advance environmental sustainability in emerging market economies.
Saving the Environment in Emerging Markets: The Synergistic Roles of Corporate Ownership Structure, Financing Strategy, and Innovation Capacity
(Wiley, 2025) Ning, Wu; Saeed, Ummar Faruk; Kongkuah, Maxwell
As global environmental challenges intensify and stakeholder pressure mounts, the imperative for companies, particularly in emerging markets, to adopt sustainable practices has become increasingly critical. Addressing a gap in the literature, this study examines the impact of ownership structure (OS) and financing strategy (FS) on environmental footprint disclosure (EFD) among energy sector firms in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, while also considering the moderating role of innovation capacity. Drawing on the resource-based view, signaling, and stakeholder theories, this study analyzes panel data from 384 firms spanning 2010 to 2023. To address potential endogeneity issues, the study employs the difference GMM modeling to mititgate endogeneity issues. Additionally, the MMQR approach is applied to capture heterogeneous effects across varying levels of EFD practices. The findings reveal that concentrated and state ownership significantly enhance EFD, while managerial ownership exerts a negative influence. Firms relying on equity financing demonstrate higher EFD levels compared to those relying on debt. Moreover, innovation capacity not only directly impacts EFD but also amplifies the influence of OS and FS on EFD. Notably, the findings remain robust after employing various econometric techniques, including DiD, 2SLS, DCCE, and PSM. These results suggest that encouraging concentrated and state ownership, alongside equity financing, can drive improved environmental transparency within MENA firms. This study underscores the strategic role of innovation in strengthening EFD, offering valuable guidance for policymakers and industry leaders on ownership and financing decisions to foster sustainable development and enhance environmental responsibility.
Investigation of the role of technological innovation in reducing carbon dioxide damage in Turkey with Fourier tests: Testing the Kuznets curve hypothesis
(Springer, 2025) Coşkun, Muhammet Fatih; Konat, Gökhan; Yılancı, Veli
Rising global environmental concerns have intensified the need to understand the relationship between technological innovation, economic growth, and environmental degradation, particularly in rapidly industrializing economies. This study examines these relationships in Turkiye within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Using annual data from 1984 to 2019, we employ Fourier-based econometric techniques, including unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and causality testing, to account for potential structural breaks and nonlinearities. Our findings reveal that while technological innovation currently contributes to increased carbon dioxide emissions, with a 1% increase in innovation leading to a 0.061% rise in environmental degradation, there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation, supporting the EKC hypothesis for Turkiye. Causality tests indicate unidirectional relationships flowing from environmental degradation to both technological innovation and economic growth. These results suggest that Turkiye requires strategic policy interventions focusing on green technologies and sustainable innovation to transition toward environmental sustainability while maintaining economic growth.
Decoupling economic growth and carbon emissions: a time-varying analysis of the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis in France (1890-2019)
(Springer, 2025) Sağlam, Muhlis Selman; Yılancı, Veli; Kongkuah, Maxwell
Global concerns regarding climate change and the necessity for sustainable economic pathways have sharpened the focus on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. For France, grasping the long-term dynamics between economic expansion, energy usage, and technological advancement is vital for creating effective low-carbon strategies. To explore this, we utilize an extensive dataset spanning 1890-2019 and employ sophisticated econometric methods. These include unit root tests incorporating Fourier functions, a cointegration test adept at handling both smooth and abrupt structural breaks, the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality procedure, and partial wavelet coherency analysis. Our goal is to rigorously probe the enduring connections among carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, economic freedom, and total factor productivity. The empirical analysis confirms a stable cointegrating link between these variables. Notably, both energy consumption and economic freedom show a significant positive correlation with CO2 emissions. Evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis-specifically, an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and emissions-appears only during distinct historical periods. Furthermore, time-varying coefficient estimates and causality tests reveal evolving dynamics influenced by structural transformations, economic occurrences, and technological progress. These outcomes suggest that decoupling economic growth from environmental harm in France hinges on policies that bolster energy efficiency, carefully integrate economic freedom with strong environmental rules, and actively promote green technological innovation.
Uncertainty and diversification: Analyzing the impact of energy-related and climate policy uncertainties on environmental degradation in the United States
(Elsevier, 2025) Yılancı, Veli; Ursavaş, Uğur; Yasin, İftikhar
This study examines the complex relationship between environmental degradation, energy-related uncertainty (EUI), climate policy uncertainty (CPU), and energy consumption diversification (ECD) in the United States from January 2001 to September 2022. Employing novel and robust econometric methods, including the Bootstrap ARDL Bounds test with smooth and sharp structural breaks, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a Fourier function, and partial wavelet coherency analysis, the study reveals a surprising negative relationship between both EUI and CPU with CO2 emissions which suggests that uncertainties surrounding energy and climate policies may incentivize actors to adopt cleaner technologies and prioritize emission reduction strategies. However, the study also identifies a positive relationship between ECD and CO2 emissions, highlighting the need for strategic diversification prioritizing renewable and low-carbon sources. These findings emphasize the critical role of clear, consistent, and sustained climate policies in fostering clean energy investment and mitigating environmental degradation.
A Study on the Effect of Health Expenditures on Selected Healthcare Indicators: Evidence from Türkiye
(AVES, 2025) Kılcı, Esra Nazmiye; Yılancı, Veli
Objective: While the coronavirus outbreak overburdens health systems, leading to a significant global death toll and severe human suffering across the world, the pandemic brought questions regarding how Türkiye manages this huge pandemic and whether Türkiye’s health system is ready for coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19). With the Health Transformation Program (HTP) which was implemented from 2003 to 2013, Türkiye made noteworthy progress in the main measures of health condition by making noteworthy investments in the healthcare sector. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of health expenditures on the selected health indicators of Türkiye for the 1977-2018 period, which covers the significant transformation process under the HTP. Methods: We employ the Bayer and Hanck cointegration test and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test to examine the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables by using life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, and crude death rate as dependent variables, and health expenditures as a regressor. Results: The results of cointegration tests support the evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables, showing that an increase in health expenditures decreases infant mortality rates and crude death rates while increasing life expectancy rates. Our results also imply that after the HTP, the effect of health expenditures on indicators has increased. Conclusion: We conclude that investments in the healthcare system led to improvements in healthcare indicators. In fighting diseases like the COVID-19 epidemic, the strength of the health system is of great importance. Investing in people’s health as human capital boosts the population’s overall health and strengthens employability, which increases the effectiveness of active employment strategies, aids in securing acceptable living conditions, and promotes growth. © 2025 AVES. All rights reserved.
İSKENDER PAŞA’NIN SARAYBOSNA’DAKİ ZAVİYE VAKFI’NIN FİNANSAL DURUM TABLOSU (1807-1821)
(Marmara Üniversitesi, 2021) Arslanboğa, Kadir
Osmanlı Devleti’nde özel şahıslar ile bürokratların kurmuş olduğu vakıflar iktisadi ve sosyal açıdan birçoktoplumsal görevi yerine getirmekteydi. Bürokratlar, özellikle de Balkanlar’da fetihten sonra bulunduklarıbölgenin idarecileri o şehrin kalkınması açısından gerek kendi gelirlerini gerekse de devletten kendilerinekuracakları vakıflar için tahsis edilen gelirleri toplum yararına adamışlardır. Fatih Sultan Mehmet ve II. Beyazıtdönemlerinin önemli eşhasından olan ve Vezir, Rumeli Beylerbeyliği ve Bosna Sancakbeyliği görevlerindebulunan İskender Paşa da başta şehrin su ihtiyacının karşılanması olmak üzere Bosna’da vakıf kurmuştur.Nehirlerin sularını şehrin muhtelif bölgelerine yönlendirmiş, çeşmeler, köprü, Nakşibendi Tekkesi, imaret,misafirhane, kervansaray ve saray inşa ettirmiştir. İnşa edilen bu yapı ve müesseselerin faaliyetlerinin devamıiçinde çiftlikler, bahçeler, yoncalıklar ve değirmenler vakfetmiştir. Vakıflar açısından tescil belgesi hüviyetindekivakfiye ile evkaf muhasebe bilançoları önem arzetmektedir. İskender Paşa Vakfı’nın vakfiyesi günümüzeulaşamamıştır. Ancak vakıf muhasebesi olarak Başbakanlık Osmanlı Arşivinde 1807-1821 yılları arasındakisüreyi ihtiva eden bir arşiv defteri bulunmaktadır. Çalışmada bu arşiv defterinden elde edilen bilgiler ışığındavakfın finansal durumu incelenmiştir. Olağan süreçte vakfın gelirlerinin giderlerini karşıladığı, ancak 1815yılında yaşanan nehir taşkınlarının vakfın inşa ettiği birimlere zarar verdiği anlaşılmaktadır. Yıkılan birimlerinyeniden inşası, vakfın devam eden yıllarda bir mali daralmaya gitmesine sebebiyet vermiştir.
To Starve the Beast or Not to Starve the Beast? Evidence from Debt-Distressed Region
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2025) Nzimande, Ntokozo; Yılancı, Veli
The elimination of budgetary disequilibrium remains a contentious issue, with scholars and policymakers debating the efficacy of tax alterations versus limiting government outlays. This topic has garnered significant attention, although research on the spending-revenue nexus is noticeably skewed against Africa, which presents an intriguing research opportunity. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported a concerning rise in public debt across Africa, highlighting the urgent need for public finance consolidation. In contrast to the extant literature, this study examines the dynamic link between revenues and expenditures from 1990 to 2022. Applying wavelet decomposition to account for temporary variations, our analysis reveals dynamic patterns in the revenue-expenditure nexus. Our findings support the institutional separation hypothesis in the short run, suggesting a distinct relationship between revenues and outlay. However, in the medium-to long-run, our results support the fiscal synchronization hypothesis, accentuating a more intertwined association between revenues and expenditures. This study sheds light on the nuanced dynamics of budgetary equilibrium in Africa, providing insights that can inform policy priorities and decision-making. Finally, by focusing on the unique context of Africa and using advanced techniques, this study contributes to the existing literature on budgetary equilibrium, filling a crucial gap in our knowledge of the public finance dynamics in the region.
Convergence analysis of ecological footprint at different time scales: Evidence from Southern Common Market countries
(Sage Publications Ltd, 2023) Ursavaş, Uğur; Yılancı, Veli
This study investigates the convergence in ecological footprint per capita across Southern Common Market countries over the period 1961-2016 within the framework of the environmental convergence hypothesis. However, unlike the existing literature, which mainly tests the convergence for the overall period, this study follows a different path. First, the time series is decomposed into different frequencies using the discrete wavelet transform method. Then, using the Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests, convergence in ecological footprint per capita is tested for different time scales; short-run, medium-run, and finally long-run. The results indicate that countries show different convergence tendencies at different time scales. While the results support the convergence hypothesis for all countries in the short-run, the convergence hypothesis holds for only four and three of the five countries in the medium and long-run, respectively. Besides, the results show that the convergence hypothesis holds for only Uruguay for the whole period.
Convergence of aggregate and sectoral nitrogen oxides in G7 countries for 1750-2019: Evidence from a new panel Fourier threshold unit root test
(Elsevier Ltd, 2021) Solarin, Sakiru Adebola; Yılancı, Veli; Gorus, Muhammed Sehid
One of the major pollutants in the atmospheric space is nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions is, and industrialized countries are responsible for a substantial share of this air pollutant at the global level. Among developed countries, G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and the US) were responsible for 12% of the global nitrogen oxide emissions in 2019. Nitrogen oxide emissions increased by almost 280 times between 1750 and 2019 in this set of countries. For this reason, this study concentrates on this group of countries. Besides, it is rational to test the convergence of NOx emissions at the sectoral level for designing effective environmental policies. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the convergence pattern of aggregate and sectoral NOx emission levels in G7 countries covering long-span data, from 1750 to 2019. Agriculture, energy production, industry, residential-commercial-other (RCO), transport, and waste are the main sectors where nitrogen oxides are emitted from. For this purpose, we utilize the panel Fourier threshold unit root test, which allows for the possibility of nonlinearity in the series. Besides, the test is able to capture gradual structural changes through the Fourier approximation. The empirical results derived from the analysis indicate that all the nitrogen oxide series have nonlinear behavior. In addition, this study highlights that the convergent behavior of sectoral nitrogen oxide displays at least partial convergence for the countries examined. Besides, global (full) convergence is confirmed for agriculture, energy production, and transport sectors for the period studied. According to the empirical findings, it can be said that policymakers in G7 countries should prioritize the emission allocation policies.
Suitable site selection by using full consistency method (FUCOM): a case study for maize cultivation in northwest Turkey
(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2024) Everest, Timuçin; Savaşkan, Gönül Selin; Or, Aykut; Özcan, Hasan
The agricultural land evaluation procedure is a valuable guide for growing plants where they are best suitable, and it has a critical role in actualizing sustainable plans for providing food security for the growing population. In agricultural land suitability analysis, different multi-criteria decision-making methods are applied. The main objective of this study is to introduce the potential usage of a new multi-criteria decision-making method the Full Consistency Method (FUCOM) in agricultural land suitability analysis. The study was carried out in the northern part of the Karamenderes plain in NW Turkey. Nine land characteristics (soil texture, soil depth, organic matter content, electrical conductivity, pH, slope, drainage, CaCO3%, and cation exchange capacity) were used for the land evaluation study. The weighting values of the land characteristics were calculated by the FUCOM. According to the results, 223 ha (6.26%) were highly suitable, 2650 ha (74.40%) were moderately suitable, 508 ha (14.26%) were marginally suitable, and 181 ha (5.08%) were not suitable for maize cultivation. The weighted values of the parameters were also tested with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Best-Worst Method (BWM). There is a general compatibility between the methodologies. The data obtained from these methods showed that analysis consists of a very positive relationship with each other. The comparisons of these methodologies showed that FUCOM’s prioritization order simplicity in parameter weighting and ability to reduce the processing intensity would provide a significant contribution and advantage to the land evaluation experts and planners. It is recommended that the Full Consistent Method could be reliably used in agricultural land suitability analysis.
Testing the nuclear energy induced environmental Kuznets curve for Bulgaria: An ARDL bounds test with sharp and smooth breaks
(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2024) Yılancı, Veli; Syed, Qasim Raza; Haouas, Ilham
Attaining sustainable development entails extensive use of clean energy and low levels of carbon emissions. Hence, nuclear energy is considered an avenue to reach higher levels of sustainable development. However, the existing literature documents the ambivalent conclusion on the nuclear energy-emissions nexus. To solve this puzzle, the present study re-investigates the nuclear energy-emissions nexus for Bulgaria using the Environmental Kuznets Curve framework. We adopt the methodology of novel bootstrap ARDL with sharp and smooth structural breaks. The findings document that nuclear energy is responsible for waning emissions across the long and short-run. Also, we validate the EKC hypothesis. To provide robust empirical findings, we perform a sensitivity analysis, which reports results similar to the baseline findings. Hence, we propose to escalate the adoption of nuclear energy to curb emissions.
Testing the Short, Medium, and Long-Term Effects of Shocks on Ecological Balance
(Springer, 2023) Yılancı, Veli; Adalı, Zafer; Çelik, Orkun; Bari, Bilgin
Ecological balance is an indicator of environmental degradation, which is computed as the difference between biocapacity and ecological footprint. In this study, we examine whether the effect of shocks on the ecological balance is permanent or temporary in the EU-15 countries, considering the period from 1961 to 2018. The application of unit root tests, with and without a Fourier function, indicates that the effects of shocks are temporary in only four countries. To reveal the persistence of shocks at different frequencies, that is, the short-, medium-, and long-run, we decomposed the ecological balance series by using the Discrete Wavelet Transform method. The unit root test results show that the effects of shocks are temporary in all countries in the short-run. However, the results also show that the shocks are temporary in nine countries in the medium-run and ten countries in the long-run. Thus, the implemented policies to balance ecology are not effective in the short-run but are effective in only six countries in the medium-term and in only five countries in the long-term. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering different frequencies when testing the effectiveness of empirically implemented policies. Regarding policy implications, this study suggests focusing on medium- and long-term environmental policies rather than short-term ones.
FDI Inflows-Economic Globalization Nexus in ASEAN Countries:The Panel Bootstrap Causality Test Based on Wavelet Decomposition
(Springer, 2023) Görüş, Muhammed Sehid; Yılancı, Veli; Kongkuah, Maxwell
This study aims to investigate the causal linkage between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and economic globalization (considering de facto and de jure indexes) for 7 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries for 1985–2018. Our sample consists of Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Empirically, we propose the panel bootstrap causality test based on wavelet decomposition to find a causal link between the series in different time scales. The main advantages of the methodology can be listed as follows; (a) testing the unit root behavior of the series, or existence of a cointegration relationship between the series are not pre-requisites, (b) one can test the causal relationship between the series in different time scales. Also, we employ the panel bootstrap causality test of Kónya (Econ Modell 23:978–992, 2006) to compare our results with the panel bootstrap causality test based on wavelet decomposition. In addition to the causality analyses, this study utilizes the panel bootstrap cointegration test of Westerlund-Edgerton (2007) to find long-run relationship between variables. The proposed method’s results exhibit that ASEAN countries’ FDI inflows and types of economic globalization levels have mutually affected each other, especially in the long-run. The empirical findings offer some significant implications for policymakers.
The role of affluence, urbanization, and human capital for sustainable forest management in China: Robust findings from a new method of Fourier cointegration
(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2023) Yılancı, Veli; Ulucak, Recep; Zhang, Yaoqi; Andreoni, Valeria
Affluence and planned urbanization may have a crucial role in conserving forests and decreasing forest footprint with rising awareness and human development. Productivity rise from technological progress is key to facilitating the underlying mechanisms of theoretically expected changes in all those processes. They are seen as an alternative way to transform the current habits into one that is conservative and respectful to the environment while keeping the economic welfare at the same time. By following the theoretical underpinnings of such expectations, this article investigates how the development changes of China have impacted on the forest footprint. In this frame, the study is an attempt to empirically inquire underlying mechanisms of the forest transition hypothesis, which supports the idea that affluence, urbanization, human capital, and productivity can help to save forests. The transition process is depicted by a hump-shaped curve mostly attributed to the Environmental Kuznets Curve in the literature. The period 1961–2017 is particularly relevant as it precedes and follows the Chinese open-door policy of the 1980s. This study reaches robust findings and new insights for sustainable forest management. Results show that income growth did not contribute to reducing the forest footprint, as the forest footprint has increased with income rises. On the contrary, urbanization, human capital, and total factor productivity have reduced the forest footprint. Based on the evidence provided, policymakers should devote increasing attention to education that serves human capital formation, and efficiency gains for sustainable forestry simultaneously.
Dynamic relationship between carbon emissions and climate policy uncertainty: a dynamic symmetric and asymmetric fourier causality analysis
(Gheorghe Asachi Technical University of Iasi, Romania, 2023) Yılancı, Veli; Ursavaş, Uğur
This paper tests the causal link between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the United States from April 1987 to February 2022. In this paper, we use a novel CPU index recently developed and employ a novel econometric methodology, dynamic symmetric and asymmetric Fourier causality tests. The findings of the causality tests show a symmetric causality relationship from CO2to CPU, and a unidirectional causality runs from positive shocks of CO2to positive shocks of CPU. We also run the causality test in a dynamic framework to test the instabilities in the causality relationship. The dynamic symmetric causality test results show a significant unidirectional causality from CO2(CPU) to CPU (CO2) for specific periods. Since different shocks may affect the causality relationship, we test the causality relationship by considering positive and negative shocks. The asymmetric causality test results show a significant unidirectional asymmetric causality from positive shocks of CO2(CPU) to positive shocks of CPU (CO2) for certain periods. Finally, the asymmetric causality test results also show a unidirectional asymmetric causality from negative shocks of CO2(CPU) to negative shocks of CPU (CO2) for certain periods. Based on our results indicating a significant causal link between CPU and CO2, governments and policymakers should avoid policies and decisions that may lead to such uncertainties.
Testing the relationship between employment and tourism: a fresh evidence from the ARDL bounds test with sharp and smooth breaks
(Emerald Publishing, 2023) Yılancı, Veli; Kirca, Mustafa
Purpose: This study aims to investigate the effect of the tourism sector on employment in 13 Mediterranean countries. In addition, the impact of economic growth and inflation rate, which are included in the analysis as control variables, on the employment rate are investigated. Design/methodology/approach: For this study, data from 1995 to 2018 and the ratio of the employed population, the number of international tourist arrivals, the annual growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) and the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) were used. First, the authors investigated the relationship between variables using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test with Sharp and Smooth Breaks. Then, after determining the significant cointegration relationship, the long-term and short-term coefficients were also estimated. Findings: The results show a cointegration relationship for Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Malta and Tunisia. Tourism demand has a positive effect on all these countries and economic growth positively affects the employment rate only in Greece, Israel and Tunisia. Besides, the inflation rate has a negative effect in Israel and Tunisia and a positive effect in Malta. Overall, the authors' results provide important policy suggestions, such as the training of the employees in the tourism sector should be improved to keep up with the requirements of the times. Practical implications: The impact of the tourism sector on total employment varies from country to country. In particular, the employment creation policies of the sector need to be changed by taking technological changes into consideration. Originality/value: Since tourism is a labor-intensive sector, tourism's impact on employment is an important research topic. However, whether this effect applies to all countries is debatable. Furthermore, the development of technology can also reduce employment in labor-intensive sectors. Therefore, this research can be regarded as important as this research addresses such a critical current issue and suggests a novel econometric method such as the ARDL Bounds Test with Sharp and Smooth Breaks.
The Determinants of Forest Products Footprint: A New Fourier Cointegration Approach
(MDPI, 2023) Yılancı, Veli
This study aims to determine the factors that affect the forest products footprint (FPF) in Brazil during the period 1965–2018 by proposing a new cointegration test which augments the Engle-Granger cointegration test with a Fourier function (Fourier Engle-Granger) and allows multiple structural breaks in the long-run relationship. Since the results of the unit root tests show that all variables are nonstationary, we applied the Fourier Engle-Granger cointegration test and revealed that there was a long-term relationship between the forest products’ footprint, energy consumption, gross domestic product, and trade openness. Although energy consumption was found to have a decreasing effect on FPF, the remaining variables were found to have a healing effect on FPF. Policymakers in Brazil should consider shifting energy consumption to clean energy sources and sustain international trade and economic growth in the current form to consider the FPF.

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