Trend analysis and forecasting of the Gokirmak River streamflow (Turkey)

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dc.authoridKALE, Semih/0000-0001-5705-6935
dc.contributor.authorArslan, Gokhan
dc.contributor.authorKale, Semih
dc.contributor.authorSonmez, Adem Yavuz
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-27T20:20:48Z
dc.date.available2025-01-27T20:20:48Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentÇanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThe objective of this paper is to determine the trend and to estimate the streamflow of the Gokirmak River. The possible trend of the streamflow was forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Time series and trend analyses were performed using monthly streamflow data for the period between 1999 and 2014. Pettitt's change point analysis was employed to detect the time of change for historical streamflow time series. Kendall's tau and Spearman's rho tests were also conducted. The results of the change point analysis determined the change point as 2008. The time series analysis showed that the streamflow of the river had a decreasing trend from the past to the present. Results of the trend analysis forecasted a decreasing trend for the streamflow in the future. The decreasing trend in the streamflow may be related to climate change. This paper provides preliminary knowledge of the streamflow trend for the Gokirmak River.
dc.identifier.doi10.1515/ohs-2020-0021
dc.identifier.endpage246
dc.identifier.issn1730-413X
dc.identifier.issn1897-3191
dc.identifier.issue3
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85092895504
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ3
dc.identifier.startpage230
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1515/ohs-2020-0021
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12428/21816
dc.identifier.volume49
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000573304600003
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ4
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWalter De Gruyter Gmbh
dc.relation.ispartofOceanological and Hydrobiological Studies
dc.relation.publicationcategoryinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_WoS_20250125
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectflow monitoring
dc.subjectforecast
dc.subjectriver
dc.subjectwater resources
dc.subjectseasonal
dc.subjectARIMA
dc.titleTrend analysis and forecasting of the Gokirmak River streamflow (Turkey)
dc.typeArticle

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