Trend analysis and forecasting of the Gokirmak River streamflow (Turkey)
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Tarih
2020
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Walter De Gruyter Gmbh
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
The objective of this paper is to determine the trend and to estimate the streamflow of the Gokirmak River. The possible trend of the streamflow was forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Time series and trend analyses were performed using monthly streamflow data for the period between 1999 and 2014. Pettitt's change point analysis was employed to detect the time of change for historical streamflow time series. Kendall's tau and Spearman's rho tests were also conducted. The results of the change point analysis determined the change point as 2008. The time series analysis showed that the streamflow of the river had a decreasing trend from the past to the present. Results of the trend analysis forecasted a decreasing trend for the streamflow in the future. The decreasing trend in the streamflow may be related to climate change. This paper provides preliminary knowledge of the streamflow trend for the Gokirmak River.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
climate change, flow monitoring, forecast, river, water resources, seasonal, ARIMA
Kaynak
Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies
WoS Q Değeri
Q4
Scopus Q Değeri
Q3
Cilt
49
Sayı
3
