Economic Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Turkey: Quantile ARDL Results

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dc.contributor.authorSaridogan, Ayse Atilgan
dc.contributor.authorKucukgergerli, Nabi
dc.contributor.authorYaman, Adem
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-03T12:00:10Z
dc.date.available2026-02-03T12:00:10Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentÇanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractIn the banking sector, problems in repaying customers' credits can increase credit risk and fragility. Therefore, it is of great importance for banks to monitor the status of non-performing loans (NPLs) closely. This study analyzes the macroeconomic factors affecting NLPs in the Turkish banking sector. It used ARDL and QARDL approaches and data for 2011M5-2024M9 in the study. According to the long-run estimation results of the ARDL model, inflation and industrial production affect the NLPs in the opposite direction. In contrast, unemployment, the exchange rate, and interest rates affect it in the same direction. The estimation results are consistent with economic theory and the literature. The QARDL estimation results show that lnCPI (tau=0.2 to tau=0.8) has negative and significant coefficients in most quantiles (tau). The coefficients for lnPMI are generally negative and statistically insignificant. The lnUNEvariable has positive and significant coefficients at most levels tau (tau=0.1 to tau=0.8). The estimation results for lnEXC show that the overall effect of the variable on NPL is positive and significant. The coefficients of interest rates are generally positive and significant. Forthe increase in the NLPsto remain atan acceptablethreshold levelforthe bankingsector and the Turkish economy, it is critical that the credit risk assessment system at the banking level works effectively and efficiently on the one hand and that macroeconomic indicators in the Turkish economy are supportive of the credit repayment conditions of economic agents on the other.
dc.identifier.doi10.26650/ekoist.2025.42.1656665
dc.identifier.endpage208
dc.identifier.issn2651-396X
dc.identifier.issue42
dc.identifier.startpage198
dc.identifier.trdizinid1343197
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2025.42.1656665
dc.identifier.urihttps://search.trdizin.gov.tr/tr/yayin/detay/1343197
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12428/34537
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001524779400013
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ4
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakTR-Dizin
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherIstanbul Univ
dc.relation.ispartofEkoist-Journal of Econometrics and Statistics
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20260130
dc.subjectNon-performing loans
dc.subjectTurkish bankingsector
dc.subjectCredit risk
dc.titleEconomic Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Turkey: Quantile ARDL Results
dc.typeArticle

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