From safe-haven to industrial driver: The influence of gold and precious metals on manufacturing growth in Türkiye

This study empirically analyzes the transformation of gold and precious metals from traditional safe-haven assets to industrial drivers in Türkiye, focusing on their effects on manufacturing growth for the period 2003M1–2025M2. Employing the Fourier-ARDL cointegration test, Fourier-Toda Yamamoto causality analysis, and Wavelet Coherence Analysis (WTC), we find a positive and significant long-term relationship between precious metal prices and manufacturing production (MPI). Inflation and crisis periods are shown to have negative effects on output. While causality tests reveal a unidirectional effect of gold price shocks on manufacturing growth, WTC analysis highlights the dynamic and time-varying nature of these relationships. The findings demonstrate that precious metals, beyond their traditional role as safe-havens, exert a multifaceted influence on real sector performance in Türkiye, offering important implications for policymakers and industrial strategy.