Development of a novel clinical prediction model for sepsis related mortality by combining NEWS, PIRO and lactate

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dc.authorid0000-0002-0933-7764
dc.authorid0009-0000-1663-1972
dc.authorid0000-0002-4162-5563
dc.authorid0000-0002-9371-0268
dc.contributor.authorKurtkulagi, Ozge
dc.contributor.authorCetin, Ece Unal
dc.contributor.authorKamis, Fatih
dc.contributor.authorDas, Murat
dc.contributor.authorSimsek, Esen
dc.contributor.authorKurtkulagi, Ozgur
dc.contributor.authorCetin, Adil Ugur
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-03T12:00:21Z
dc.date.available2026-02-03T12:00:21Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentÇanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractPrognostic assessment plays a crucial role in guiding therapeutic decision-making for patients with sepsis, particularly in intensive care settings. This study aimed to develop a multivariable model to predict 28-day mortality among intensive care unit (ICU) patients with sepsis by integrating serum lactate levels, the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and the Predisposition, Infection, Response, and Organ Dysfunction (PIRO) score. Demographic information, clinical characteristics, and laboratory findings routinely collected at ICU admission were used to calculate the NEWS and PIRO scores for each patient. Patients were categorized as survivors or non-survivors based on their outcome. Both logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were applied for mortality prediction analysis. The final analysis included 205 patients diagnosed with sepsis (mean age: 73.6 +/- 13.2 years; 53.2% male), of whom 109 died during hospitalization. Logistic regression analysis revealed that lactate, NEWS, and PIRO scores were independently associated with 28-day mortality. Combining lactate levels with NEWS and PIRO significantly enhanced mortality prediction, with the greatest accuracy observed when all three parameters were integrated. Pairwise analyses demonstrated that adding lactate to the base model significantly improved predictive accuracy (DBA: -0.103, p = 0.003), and incorporating lactate into a model already including NEWS further enhanced its predictive value (DBA: -0.042, p = 0.037). In conclusion, serum lactate measured at initial ICU admission provides valuable prognostic information for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients. Furthermore, combining lactate levels with NEWS and PIRO scores substantially enhances the accuracy of mortality prediction in these patients.
dc.identifier.doi10.17305/bb.2025.12562
dc.identifier.endpage2577
dc.identifier.issn2831-0896
dc.identifier.issn2831-090X
dc.identifier.issue11
dc.identifier.pmid40587408
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105016414282
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage2570
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.17305/bb.2025.12562
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12428/34572
dc.identifier.volume25
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001528958600001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMed
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherAssoc Basic Medical Sci Federation Bosnia & Herzegovina Sarajevo
dc.relation.ispartofBiomolecules and Biomedicine
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20260130
dc.subjectSepsis prognosis
dc.subjectrisk assessment
dc.subjectintensive care unit
dc.subjectblood lactate levels
dc.titleDevelopment of a novel clinical prediction model for sepsis related mortality by combining NEWS, PIRO and lactate
dc.typeArticle

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