Assessment of the statistical earthquake hazard parameters for NW Turkey

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dc.authoridBEKLER, TOLGA/0000-0002-9475-8626
dc.contributor.authorAkol, Banu
dc.contributor.authorBekler, Tolga
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-27T20:47:39Z
dc.date.available2025-01-27T20:47:39Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.departmentÇanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractWe performed a probabilistic analysis of earthquake hazard input parameters, NW Turkey covers Gelibolu and Biga Peninsulas, and its vicinity based on four seismic sub-zones. The number of earthquakes with magnitude M a parts per thousand yen 3.0 occurred in this region for the period between 1912 and 2007 is around 5130. Four seismic source sub-zones were defined with respect to seismotectonic framework, seismicity and fault geometry. The hazard perceptibility characterization was examined for each seismic source zone and for the whole region. The probabilities of earthquake recurrences were obtained by using Poisson statistical distribution models. In order to determine the source zones where strong and destructive earthquakes may occur, distribution maps for a, b and a/b values were calculated. The hazard scaling parameters (generally known as a and b values) in the computed magnitude-frequency relations vary in the intervals 4.28-6.58 and 0.59-1.13, respectively, with a RMS error percentage below 10 %. The lowest b value is computed for sub-zone three indicating the predominance of large earthquakes mostly at Gelibolu (Gallipoli) and north of Biga Peninsula (southern Marmara region), and the highest b value is computed for sub-zone two Edremit Bay (SW Marmara region). According to the analysis of each seismic sub-zone, the greatest risk of earthquake occurrence is determined for the triangle of Gelibolu-Tekirdag western part of Marmara Sea. Earthquake occurrence of the largest magnitude with 7.3 within a 100-year period was determined to be 46 % according to the Poisson distribution, and the estimated recurrence period of years for this region is 50 +/- A 12. The seismic hazard is pronounced high in the region extending in a NW-SE direction, north of Edremit Bay, west of Saros Bay and Yenice Gonen (southern Marmara region) in the south. High b values are generally calculated at depths of 5-20 km that can be expressed as low seismic energy release and evaluated as the seismogenic zone.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11069-013-0659-1
dc.identifier.endpage853
dc.identifier.issn0921-030X
dc.identifier.issn1573-0840
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84881055437
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage837
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0659-1
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12428/24995
dc.identifier.volume68
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000322727300033
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.ispartofNatural Hazards
dc.relation.publicationcategoryinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_WoS_20250125
dc.subjectNorthwest Anatolia
dc.subjectSeismic hazard
dc.subjectPoisson distribution
dc.titleAssessment of the statistical earthquake hazard parameters for NW Turkey
dc.typeArticle

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