Projecting climate change, drought conditions and crop productivity in Turkey

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.authoridsen, burak/0000-0001-8105-1106
dc.authoridSEN, BAHA/0000-0003-3577-2548
dc.contributor.authorSen, Burak
dc.contributor.authorTopcu, Sevilay
dc.contributor.authorTurkes, Murat
dc.contributor.authorSen, Baha
dc.contributor.authorWarner, Jeoren F.
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-27T20:59:59Z
dc.date.available2025-01-27T20:59:59Z
dc.date.issued2012
dc.departmentÇanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis paper focuses on the evaluation of regional climate model simulation for Turkey for the 21st century. A regional climate model, ICTP-RegCM3, with 20 km horizontal resolution, is used to downscale the reference and future climate scenario (IPCC-A2) simulations. Characteristics of droughts as well as the crop growth and yields of first- and second-crop corn are then calculated and simulated based on the data produced. The model projects an increase in air temperature of 5 to 7 degrees C during the summer season over the west and an increase of 3.5 degrees C for the winter season for the eastern part of the country. Precipitation is predicted to be 40% less in the southwest, although it may increase by 25% in the eastern part of the Black Sea region and north eastern Turkey. Trends in drought intensity and crop growth are related to climate changes. The results suggest more frequent, intense and long-lasting droughts in the country particularly along the western and southern coasts under future climate conditions. A shift of climate classes towards drier conditions is also projected for the western, southern and central regions during the 21st century. Evaluating the role of the climate change trends in crop production reveals significant decreases in yield and shortened growth seasons for first-and second-crop corn, a likely result of high temperatures and water stresses. In addition to rising temperatures and declining precipitation, increasing frequency, severity and duration of drought events may significantly affect food production and socio-economic conditions in Turkey. Our results may help policy makers and relevant sectors to implement appropriate and timely measures to cope with climate-change-induced droughts and their effects in the future.
dc.description.sponsorshipCukurova University [BAP31]
dc.description.sponsorshipWe gratefully acknowledge the scientific and technical support with regard to the RegCM3 from Dr. F. Giorgi and Dr. X. Bi from the Abdus Salam ICTP. We extend our gratitude to Dr. H. Tatli from Canakkale 18 Mart University for providing us the SPI program. We also thank Dr. S. O. Krichak for his valuable comments and suggestions, which significantly helped to improve this paper. Our special thanks are extended to 3 anonymous reviewers and the editor for insightful and constructive comments. This study was partially supported by the Cukurova University Fund for Scientific Research Projects (BAP31).
dc.identifier.doi10.3354/cr01074
dc.identifier.endpage191
dc.identifier.issn0936-577X
dc.identifier.issn1616-1572
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84861621240
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.startpage175
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3354/cr01074
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12428/26901
dc.identifier.volume52
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000302015300011
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-Research
dc.relation.ispartofClimate Research
dc.relation.publicationcategoryinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_WoS_20250125
dc.subjectRegional climate model
dc.subjectRegCM3
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectDrought indices
dc.subjectAgriculture
dc.subjectCrop growth model
dc.subjectCorn
dc.subjectTurkey
dc.titleProjecting climate change, drought conditions and crop productivity in Turkey
dc.typeArticle

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