Downscaling standardized precipitation index via model output statistics

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dc.authoridTatlı, Hasan / 0000-0002-1960-0618
dc.contributor.authorTatlı, Hasan
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-27T20:20:48Z
dc.date.available2025-01-27T20:20:48Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.departmentÇanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates the possible impacts of future climate change on meteorological drought events in Turkey by using a new statistical downscaling technique based on polytomous logistic regression, denoted as the model output statistics (MOS) technique. It is designed to downscale the drought classes of the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The main goal of a downscaling procedure is to determine the influences of large-scale climatic variability and the projected changes on the local scale-regional variables. The large-scale predictors used in this study were obtained from the output of the Second Generation Canadian Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM2) simulations, run from 1940 to 2100 for three socioeconomic scenarios, namely control, with the constraint of the 20th century atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, and the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Observations from 96 meteorological stations were used to estimate 12-month SPI values for the period 1940-2010, leaving the last 10 years for validation against the results simulated by the CGCM2. The MOS results derived from the control climate simulation agree with the observed patterns for present climate. The MOS results derived from future climate scenarios lead to conclude that there is a decreased probability of very wet and extremely wet conditions. In addition, the probabilities of near-normal conditions will decrease in the Black Sea coast and will increase towards the Marmara Transition and continental eastern Anatolia regions.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S0187-6236(15)30002-3
dc.identifier.endpage98
dc.identifier.issn0187-6236
dc.identifier.issn2395-8812
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84929658744
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ3
dc.identifier.startpage83
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/S0187-6236(15)30002-3
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12428/21817
dc.identifier.volume28
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000355177100002
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ4
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherCentro Ciencias Atmosfera Unam
dc.relation.ispartofAtmosfera
dc.relation.publicationcategoryinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_WoS_20250125
dc.subjectClimate of Turkey
dc.subjectstatistical downscaling
dc.subjectlogistic regression
dc.subjectstandard precipitation index (SPI)
dc.titleDownscaling standardized precipitation index via model output statistics
dc.typeArticle

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