Detecting persistence of meteorological drought via the Hurst exponent

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.authoridTatlı, Hasan / 0000-0002-1960-0618
dc.contributor.authorTatlı, Hasan
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-27T20:43:40Z
dc.date.available2025-01-27T20:43:40Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.departmentÇanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis study proposes the Hurst exponent (H) to detect persistence in the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over Turkey. Since a fractal structure admits the behaviour of global determinism and local randomness, the H exponent values could be used to detect self-similar statistical structure of the time series. Additionally, the H value >0.5 and near 1 shows the intensity level of persistence. The term persistence may be assessed as a criterion to be used as a measure of predictability. Moreover, the predictability index, fractal dimension and autocorrelation function of the PDSI values can also be obtained from the H values. Nevertheless, it is not easy to find a spatial meaning of information content of the results obtained by the methods used in the present study. For that reason, the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test was also used, and the results showed that significant negative trends are widespread throughout the country. As expected, the H values were close to 1 in places where statistically significant trends exist. The high values of the H exponent in all the regions can be explained by the droughts observed there that might be caused due to the possible associations with the large-scale atmospheric circulations. In this context, it is suggested that the droughts can be predictable by constructing the appropriate general climate circulation models.
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/met.1519
dc.identifier.endpage769
dc.identifier.issn1350-4827
dc.identifier.issn1469-8080
dc.identifier.issue4
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84947426242
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.startpage763
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/met.1519
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12428/24322
dc.identifier.volume22
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000365314300008
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.relation.ispartofMeteorological Applications
dc.relation.publicationcategoryinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_WoS_20250125
dc.subjectHurst exponent
dc.subjectMann-Kendall
dc.subjectPDSI
dc.subjectPersistence
dc.subjectTrend
dc.subjectTurkey
dc.titleDetecting persistence of meteorological drought via the Hurst exponent
dc.typeArticle

Dosyalar

Orijinal paket
Listeleniyor 1 - 1 / 1
[ X ]
İsim:
Hasan Tatli_Makale.pdf
Boyut:
2.11 MB
Biçim:
Adobe Portable Document Format
İndir

Koleksiyon

WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
Coğrafya Bölümü Koleksiyonu
Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu