EFFECTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON TURKISH NATURAL STONE INDUSTRY: A GREY FORECASTING MODEL

When the indicators in recent years are examined in the developing and renewed economic environment in Turkey, it is seen that the momentum of the natural stone industry and its share in total mining exports have increased steadily. However, the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, which affected the whole world, also affected the Turkish natural industry. Within the scope of this study, the export values of the Turkish natural stone industry on a monthly and yearly basis were evaluated both before the pandemic and during the pandemic. Export figures for 2020 and 2021 were tried to be estimated using the Gray Forecast model. With the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic, natural stone export figures for 2020 fell behind 2019 in February, March, April and May. With the normalization process in June, July and Months, normalization started in export figures and exceeded the export values of 2019 in September, October, November and December. In 2020, which was entered with great hopes, it was not possible to reach the targeted figures this year due to the pandemic. In addition, Also, export values for 2020 and 2021 were predicted using a GM (1,1) grey forecasting model, which is a method frequently used in uncertainty cases. 2020 and 2021 export values were estimated by using the GM (1,1) gray forecasting model, which is a method frequently used in uncertainty situations. It has been seen that the model can be used reliably to predict natural stone export figures. In the following years, some assessments and recommendations have been made that may make the Turkish natural stone industry stronger in the following years on issues such as health management of crises and adaptation to the current situation if such outbreaks are replicated in the global world economy.