Climate change and the fate of endemic Beysehir Frog, Pelophylax caralitanus

Global warming and the decline in precipitation threaten wetlands worldwide, and lakes in some regions are in the process of drying. Amphibians, since they are water-dependent, will be the creatures most affected by the rapid habitat losses due to climate change. Especially for amphibian species which are endemic, the situation will be more serious in terms of its impact on biodiversity. Therefore, in this study, we determined the climate characteristics specific to the habitats of an endemic amphibian species, Pelophylax caralitanus. According to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios of the ICPP, we analyzed whether the climatic characteristics specific to these habitats will exist in 2050 and 2070 under the criteria of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. The results are quite alarming for Pelophylax caralitanus. According to the RCP climate change scenarios, the climatic conditions in the present habitats of this endemic amphibian species will not remain stable in that the potential habitats in Southwestern Anatolia will be dramatically reduced and the appropriate habitats of P. caralitanus around the Turkish Lake District will completely disappear, while some new potential habitats will emerge in the Northwest Aegean region of Turkey.