Trend analysis and comparison of forecast models for production of turkish crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus eschscholtz, 1823) in turkey

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dc.contributor.authorKale, Semih
dc.contributor.authorBerber, Selçuk
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-27T18:59:10Z
dc.date.available2025-01-27T18:59:10Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentÇanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis paper aimed to develop forecasting models and to assess the trends in the production of freshwater crayfish in Turkey. Different trend analysis methods (Box-Jenkins method, Şen’s innovative trend analysis, MannKendall test) were compared, and different autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were generated to forecast the future trend. The results of the innovative trend analysis methodology and ARIMA models revealed that freshwater crayfish production has a decreasing trend during the study period, although there are some fluctuations. ARIMA models predicted that the production of freshwater crayfish would continue to decrease in the future period. The present paper is also the most temporally rich assessment of the crayfish production in Turkey encompassing 100+ years from 1909 to 2018. Several factors such as climate change, overexploitation, diseases, legal regulations, and fisheries management policies might affect the production amount. Therefore, appropriate policies for fisheries management and legal regulations should be planned and implemented to improve the production. © 2020, Centenary University. All rights reserved.
dc.identifier.doi10.29133/yyutbd.761275
dc.identifier.endpage988
dc.identifier.issn1308-7576
dc.identifier.issueAdditional issue
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85102431501
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ3
dc.identifier.startpage973
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.29133/yyutbd.761275
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12428/13179
dc.identifier.volume30
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherCentenary University
dc.relation.ispartofYuzuncu Yil University Journal of Agricultural Sciences
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_Scopus_20250125
dc.subjectForecast; Freshwater crayfish; Production; Trend analysis
dc.titleTrend analysis and comparison of forecast models for production of turkish crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus eschscholtz, 1823) in turkey
dc.title.alternativeTürkiye’deki kerevit (Pontastacus leptodactylus eschscholtz, 1823) üretimi için trend analizi ve tahmin modellerinin karşılaştırılması
dc.typeArticle

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