Economic and geopolitical risk factors on environmental sustainability in Türkiye: a time-varying and wavelet coherence analysis

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dc.contributor.authorYilanci, Veli
dc.contributor.authorMike, Faruk
dc.contributor.authorUrsavaş, Uğur
dc.contributor.authorKızılkaya, Oktay
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-03T11:53:49Z
dc.date.available2026-02-03T11:53:49Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentÇanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractTürkiye is one of the few countries in the world that simultaneously faces economic and geopolitical risk factors, and their impacts on environmental degradation remain highly uncertain. This study aims to investigate the dynamic effects of two major risk factors—economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks—on the ecological footprint in Türkiye. Using annual data from 1985 to 2021, the study employs a robust methodological approach, including Fourier cointegration and causality analyses, time-varying coefficients and causality estimations, and partial wavelet coherence. All analyses provide strong and consistent evidence that EPU improves environmental quality, whereas GPR contributes to environmental degradation in Türkiye. Specifically, long-run estimations suggest that EPU mitigates environmental degradation, while GPR exerts pressure on resource consumption. Causality analysis further reveals a unidirectional relationship from EPU to the ecological footprint. Importantly, time-varying analysis highlights that EPU has a decreasing impact on the ecological footprint, particularly after the 2008 global financial crisis, whereas GPR has an increasing impact, due to the conflicts in neighboring countries during the same period. Partial wavelet coherence analysis further confirms the dynamic nature of these associations, particularly highlighting a significant correlation between EPU, GPR, and environmental degradation. These findings underscore the importance of stable economic policies and international cooperation to mitigate geopolitical risks and reduce environmental degradation in Türkiye. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11135-025-02442-x
dc.identifier.issn0033-5177
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105019074791
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-025-02442-x
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12428/34323
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media B.V.
dc.relation.ispartofQuality and Quantity
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_Scopus_20260130
dc.subjectEcological footprint
dc.subjectEconomic policy uncertainty
dc.subjectGeopolitical risk
dc.subjectPartial wavelet coherence
dc.subjectTime-varying analysis
dc.titleEconomic and geopolitical risk factors on environmental sustainability in Türkiye: a time-varying and wavelet coherence analysis
dc.typeArticle

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