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Öğe Balancing growth and sustainability: The long-run impact of financial and technological innovations on India's ecological footprint(Wiley, 2024) Ursavaş, Uğur; Bil, Erkan; Yılancı, VeliThis study examines the effects of financial and technological innovations on India's ecological footprint-a comprehensive indicator of environmental degradation. Although previous research has addressed the individual impacts of these innovations, their collective influence has not been thoroughly investigated. Using data from 1973 to 2018 and employing ARDL Bounds and Bayer-Hanck cointegration tests, we find a long-run relationship between innovations, economic growth, energy consumption, and the ecological footprint. Notably, while the short-term impact of innovations appears detrimental, both financial and technological innovations demonstrate a long-term beneficial effect on the environment, which suggests that initial investments in innovation may have short-term environmental costs, but ultimately contribute to environmental improvement. Additionally, this study confirms the harmful long-term effects of energy consumption and economic growth on the environment. These findings underscore the importance of transitioning to cleaner energy sources, improving energy efficiency, and implementing robust environmental policies to foster sustainable development in India.Öğe Convergence analysis of ecological footprint at different time scales: Evidence from Southern Common Market countries(Sage Publications Ltd, 2023) Ursavaş, Uğur; Yılancı, VeliThis study investigates the convergence in ecological footprint per capita across Southern Common Market countries over the period 1961-2016 within the framework of the environmental convergence hypothesis. However, unlike the existing literature, which mainly tests the convergence for the overall period, this study follows a different path. First, the time series is decomposed into different frequencies using the discrete wavelet transform method. Then, using the Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests, convergence in ecological footprint per capita is tested for different time scales; short-run, medium-run, and finally long-run. The results indicate that countries show different convergence tendencies at different time scales. While the results support the convergence hypothesis for all countries in the short-run, the convergence hypothesis holds for only four and three of the five countries in the medium and long-run, respectively. Besides, the results show that the convergence hypothesis holds for only Uruguay for the whole period.Öğe Dynamic relationship between carbon emissions and climate policy uncertainty: a dynamic symmetric and asymmetric fourier causality analysis(Gheorghe Asachi Technical University of Iasi, Romania, 2023) Yılancı, Veli; Ursavaş, UğurThis paper tests the causal link between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the United States from April 1987 to February 2022. In this paper, we use a novel CPU index recently developed and employ a novel econometric methodology, dynamic symmetric and asymmetric Fourier causality tests. The findings of the causality tests show a symmetric causality relationship from CO2to CPU, and a unidirectional causality runs from positive shocks of CO2to positive shocks of CPU. We also run the causality test in a dynamic framework to test the instabilities in the causality relationship. The dynamic symmetric causality test results show a significant unidirectional causality from CO2(CPU) to CPU (CO2) for specific periods. Since different shocks may affect the causality relationship, we test the causality relationship by considering positive and negative shocks. The asymmetric causality test results show a significant unidirectional asymmetric causality from positive shocks of CO2(CPU) to positive shocks of CPU (CO2) for certain periods. Finally, the asymmetric causality test results also show a unidirectional asymmetric causality from negative shocks of CO2(CPU) to negative shocks of CPU (CO2) for certain periods. Based on our results indicating a significant causal link between CPU and CO2, governments and policymakers should avoid policies and decisions that may lead to such uncertainties.Öğe Economic and geopolitical risk factors on environmental sustainability in Türkiye: a time-varying and wavelet coherence analysis(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2025) Yilanci, Veli; Mike, Faruk; Ursavaş, Uğur; Kızılkaya, OktayTürkiye is one of the few countries in the world that simultaneously faces economic and geopolitical risk factors, and their impacts on environmental degradation remain highly uncertain. This study aims to investigate the dynamic effects of two major risk factors—economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks—on the ecological footprint in Türkiye. Using annual data from 1985 to 2021, the study employs a robust methodological approach, including Fourier cointegration and causality analyses, time-varying coefficients and causality estimations, and partial wavelet coherence. All analyses provide strong and consistent evidence that EPU improves environmental quality, whereas GPR contributes to environmental degradation in Türkiye. Specifically, long-run estimations suggest that EPU mitigates environmental degradation, while GPR exerts pressure on resource consumption. Causality analysis further reveals a unidirectional relationship from EPU to the ecological footprint. Importantly, time-varying analysis highlights that EPU has a decreasing impact on the ecological footprint, particularly after the 2008 global financial crisis, whereas GPR has an increasing impact, due to the conflicts in neighboring countries during the same period. Partial wavelet coherence analysis further confirms the dynamic nature of these associations, particularly highlighting a significant correlation between EPU, GPR, and environmental degradation. These findings underscore the importance of stable economic policies and international cooperation to mitigate geopolitical risks and reduce environmental degradation in Türkiye. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025.Öğe Geopolitical Risk and Türkiye's Tourism Growth: Testing a Shifting Relationship(Editura Ase, 2025) Ursavaş, Uğur; Yılancı, Veli; Ghosh, SudeshnaThis study analyses the relationship between tourism and economic growth in Türkiye, taking a novel approach by considering the impact of geopolitical risk. Using monthly data from 1996 to 2022, we disaggregate tourism markets based on countries' geopolitical risk levels. By employing a fuzzy clustering technique, we reveal how the tourism-growth nexus varies across different geopolitical risk clusters. Furthermore, we utilise Fourier-Toda-Yamamoto Causality test to analyse the causal relationship across short, medium, and long-term horizons. Our findings reveal a consistent tourism-led growth pattern in all countries regardless of geopolitical risk, highlighting the significant role of tourism in the Turkish economy. However, the study uncovers crucial nuances within the tourism-growth relationship, demonstrating a feedback effect in the short run and varying causal relationships across different time horizons. This study contributes to the literature by explicitly incorporating geopolitical risk into the analysis of tourism-led growth, providing valuable insights for policy makers in Türkiye.Öğe Revisiting purchasing power parity in emerging-7 countries: A powerful unit root test(Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, 2024) Yılancı, Veli; Ursavaş, Uğur; Mike, FarukThis paper introduces a newly developed unit root test procedure named the Fourier Quantile aestar (faestar-qks) test that allows nonlinearity and structural changes. The faestar-qks unit root test is mainly based on the quantile approach and provides more powerful results since it is robust toward non-normal errors. Then, we test the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis (ppp) [or the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates] in emerging seven (E7) countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey) from 1995:1 to 2023:6 by using a novel faestar-qks test procedure. The results show that the faestar-qks unit root test provides more evidence on the validity of ppp than the traditional unit root test. Accordingly, the ppp hypothesis is valid in all E7 countries except for Turkey in the long run.Öğe Towards Sustainable Development: Revisiting the Middle-Income Trap Hypothesis for the Southern Common Market Countries(Politechnika Lubelska, 2023) Yılancı, Veli; Ursavaş, Uğur; Güven, TamerOne of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations is to promote, sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth. However, it is observed that many countries struggle to move up from the middle-income to high-income level, which refers to the middle-income trap (MIT). In this paper, we test the MIT hypothesis using a novel unit root test of Gomez-Zaldivar et al. (2013) across the Southern Common Market (MECOSUR) countries. To do so, we follow a different path from the existing literature and use a novel unit root testing strategy. We first test the significance of the trend term and then examine the unit root properties of the series by allowing multiple structural breaks according to the existence/non-existence of the trend term. Our results provide evidence of stationarity for Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, indicating that these four MERCOSUR countries are in MIT.Öğe Uncertainty and diversification: Analyzing the impact of energy-related and climate policy uncertainties on environmental degradation in the United States(Elsevier, 2025) Yılancı, Veli; Ursavaş, Uğur; Yasin, İftikharThis study examines the complex relationship between environmental degradation, energy-related uncertainty (EUI), climate policy uncertainty (CPU), and energy consumption diversification (ECD) in the United States from January 2001 to September 2022. Employing novel and robust econometric methods, including the Bootstrap ARDL Bounds test with smooth and sharp structural breaks, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a Fourier function, and partial wavelet coherency analysis, the study reveals a surprising negative relationship between both EUI and CPU with CO2 emissions which suggests that uncertainties surrounding energy and climate policies may incentivize actors to adopt cleaner technologies and prioritize emission reduction strategies. However, the study also identifies a positive relationship between ECD and CO2 emissions, highlighting the need for strategic diversification prioritizing renewable and low-carbon sources. These findings emphasize the critical role of clear, consistent, and sustained climate policies in fostering clean energy investment and mitigating environmental degradation.
