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    Economic and geopolitical risk factors on environmental sustainability in Türkiye: a time-varying and wavelet coherence analysis
    (Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2025) Yilanci, Veli; Mike, Faruk; Ursavaş, Uğur; Kızılkaya, Oktay
    Türkiye is one of the few countries in the world that simultaneously faces economic and geopolitical risk factors, and their impacts on environmental degradation remain highly uncertain. This study aims to investigate the dynamic effects of two major risk factors—economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks—on the ecological footprint in Türkiye. Using annual data from 1985 to 2021, the study employs a robust methodological approach, including Fourier cointegration and causality analyses, time-varying coefficients and causality estimations, and partial wavelet coherence. All analyses provide strong and consistent evidence that EPU improves environmental quality, whereas GPR contributes to environmental degradation in Türkiye. Specifically, long-run estimations suggest that EPU mitigates environmental degradation, while GPR exerts pressure on resource consumption. Causality analysis further reveals a unidirectional relationship from EPU to the ecological footprint. Importantly, time-varying analysis highlights that EPU has a decreasing impact on the ecological footprint, particularly after the 2008 global financial crisis, whereas GPR has an increasing impact, due to the conflicts in neighboring countries during the same period. Partial wavelet coherence analysis further confirms the dynamic nature of these associations, particularly highlighting a significant correlation between EPU, GPR, and environmental degradation. These findings underscore the importance of stable economic policies and international cooperation to mitigate geopolitical risks and reduce environmental degradation in Türkiye. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025.
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    Öğe
    Revisiting purchasing power parity in emerging-7 countries: A powerful unit root test
    (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, 2024) Yılancı, Veli; Ursavaş, Uğur; Mike, Faruk
    This paper introduces a newly developed unit root test procedure named the Fourier Quantile aestar (faestar-qks) test that allows nonlinearity and structural changes. The faestar-qks unit root test is mainly based on the quantile approach and provides more powerful results since it is robust toward non-normal errors. Then, we test the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis (ppp) [or the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates] in emerging seven (E7) countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey) from 1995:1 to 2023:6 by using a novel faestar-qks test procedure. The results show that the faestar-qks unit root test provides more evidence on the validity of ppp than the traditional unit root test. Accordingly, the ppp hypothesis is valid in all E7 countries except for Turkey in the long run.