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    Possible Temperature Changes in Kazdagi (Mount Ida) and Its vicinity according to Regional Climate Data (2000-2099)
    (Marmara Univ, 2017) Hepbilgin, Berna; Koc, Telat
    Kazdagi (Mt. Ida) is important in terms of climate change studies due to its different climate and social structure on both slopes as well as its natural resources. It is aimed to estimate plausible changes in annual mean temperatures in study area until 2099. It is expected that determined temperature changes in Mt. Ida will contribute to the sustainability of its natural and social richness and to the efforts on climate change. In this study, it is used the annual mean temperature values of 1971-2000 reference period and regional climate model outputs of 2016-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 periods both RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios obtained from Turkish State Meteorological Service. Calculated station values were interpolated to the surface of Mt. Ida at 10mx10m sized and modelled to topography in Geographical Information Systems and the temperature distribution maps were produced. According to RCP4.5 scenario findings, 80% of the study area has had 16-21 degrees C temperature range by the year 2099, while 86% of that area was 10-16 degrees C temperature range in reference period. As to RCP8.5 scenario findings, the 16-22 degrees C temperature range has been 82% by the year 2099, while 86% of that area was 10-16 degrees C temperature range in 1971-2000.
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    Öğe
    Projected Climate Changes in Kazdagi (Mount Ida) and Its vicinity according to Regional Temperature and Precipitation Data (2000-2099)
    (Marmara Univ, 2018) Hepbilgin, Berna; Koc, Telat
    Climate change is an important environmental issue in our time. As the climate change process continues, the potential impacts of climate change can not be clearly understood. However, climate research is accelerated at more regional and local scales. In this research, changes in the climate of Kaz Mount and its vicinity were investigated until 2099. The current distribution of climate types and climate changes in Kaz Mount are perceived as a problem. Climate changes are thought to affect the field water balance, biological diversity and socio- economic activities negatively. It is expected that the study will contribute scientifically to the sustainability of natural and human resources on the field and to planning studies. Climate changes were analyzed using the GIS according to Erinc, Emberger and De-Martonne indices. Between 2000 and 2099, according to the Erinc climate classification, very humid, humid and semi-humid climate areas reduced by 86%, 47%, 12% respectively. Semi-arid climate areas expanded by 7348%. According to the Emberger climate classification, the rainy Mediterranean climate area expanded by 463% and low-rain and semi-arid Mediterranean climate areas narrowed by 11% and 93% respectively. According to the De-Martonne climate classification, humid climate areas have narrowed by 35% and semi-arid areas have expanded by 73%.
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    Öğe
    Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation total series over Turkey
    (Wiley, 2009) Turkes, Murat; Koc, Telat; Saris, Faize
    Long-term changes and trends in the series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation totals of 97 stations in Turkey were analysed by considering their spatial and temporal characteristics. Secular trends in precipitation series were examined with the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test for the general period 1930-2002, whereas spatial variabilities of, and relationships between, the precipitation series at 86 of these stations were investigated by the principal component analysis (PCA) for the period 1953-2002 when the length of data is at its best for the stations subjected to the PCA. Major findings of the paper can be summarized as follows: (1) First principal component (PC1) generally describes climatology of the precipitation totals in Turkey that is closely governed by the large-scale and/or synoptic scale atmospheric features (i.e. surface and upper air pressure and wind systems). (2) In winter, it is very likely that the greater PC1 loadings over the western and south-western parts of Turkey characterized mainly with the Mediterranean rainfall regimes indicate influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and associated weather patterns. However, smaller PC1 loadings over the north-eastern and eastern parts of Turkey are very likely related to the influence of the northerly mid-latitude cyclones, and the northerly and easterly circulations linked with the Eastern Europe and the Siberian originated high pressures on spatial variations of winter precipitation. (3) As for the long-term temporal variability, it was detected that there is an apparent decreasing trend in the winter precipitation totals of Turkey, whereas a general increasing trend is dominant in the precipitation totals of spring, summer and autumn seasons. (4) Observed decreasing trends are the strongest over the Mediterranean and the Mediterranean Transition rainfall regime regions. (5) Strong decreasing trends are also mostly found in winter months of the year, while apparent increasing trends show up at some stations in the months of April, August and October. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society