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    An empirical investigation of factors affecting the trade balance of G-20 countries
    (International Economic Society, 2015) Kiliç, Cüneyt; Balan, Feyza; Kurt, Ünzüle
    During the last twenty years, economic literature has drawn attention to an encouraging role of efficient institutional implements on economic growth. Also, the world oil prices and real exchange rates inevitably are several important variables affecting many macroeconomic parameters of both developed and developing nations on their process of economic growth/development. This paper investigates the effects of institutional quality and of the world oil prices and real effective exchange rates on the trade balance in G-20 countries over the period 1996-2012. Using a static panel data approach, the results of this study demonstrate that the world oil prices, real effective exchange rates and institutional quality are crucial factors on trade balance for G-20 countries. This study also considers the effect of the 2008 Global Economic Crisis and confirms the negative effect of the 2008 crisis on trade balance for G-20 countries. © International Economic Society.
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    Öğe
    From safe-haven to industrial driver: The influence of gold and precious metals on manufacturing growth in Türkiye
    (Borsa Istanbul Anonim Sirketi, 2025) Kazak, Hasan; Akcan, Ahmet Tayfur; Kiliç, Cüneyt; Soyyigit, Semanur
    This study empirically analyzes the transformation of gold and precious metals from traditional safe-haven assets to industrial drivers in Türkiye, focusing on their effects on manufacturing growth for the period 2003M1–2025M2. Employing the Fourier-ARDL cointegration test, Fourier-Toda Yamamoto causality analysis, and Wavelet Coherence Analysis (WTC), we find a positive and significant long-term relationship between precious metal prices and manufacturing production (MPI). Inflation and crisis periods are shown to have negative effects on output. While causality tests reveal a unidirectional effect of gold price shocks on manufacturing growth, WTC analysis highlights the dynamic and time-varying nature of these relationships. The findings demonstrate that precious metals, beyond their traditional role as safe-havens, exert a multifaceted influence on real sector performance in Türkiye, offering important implications for policymakers and industrial strategy. © 2025 Borsa İstanbul Anonim Şirketi