Yazar "Gultay, Berrin" seçeneğine göre listele

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    Öğe
    Comparisons of the alternative biased estimators for the distributed lag models
    (Taylor & Francis Inc, 2017) Guler, Huseyin; Gultay, Berrin; Kaciranlar, Selahattin
    The finite distributed lag models include highly correlated variables as well as lagged and unlagged values of the same variables. Some problems are faced for this model when applying the ordinary least squares (OLS) method or econometric models such as Almon and Koyck models. The primary aim of this study is to compare performances of alternative estimators to the OLS estimator defined by combining the Almon estimator with some estimators using Almon (1965) data. A simulation study with different model parameters is performed and the estimators are compared according to the root mean square error (RMSE) and prediction mean square error (PMSE).
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    Determination of Extraordinary Districts in Party Preferences in Turkey (2007-2015)
    (Ankara Haci Bayram Veli Univ, 2019) Ozozen Kahraman, Selver; Gultay, Berrin
    In this study, it is aimed to determine the districts which show extraordinary votes in 9 election regions and across the country according to the results of the last four general elections (2007, 2011, June 2015 and November 2015) in the parliamentary system. Hence, voting rates data in electoral areas were converted into standard Z scores. In the converted data, districts staying within +/- 2,5 standard deviation distance were determined as extreme values; that is, districts showing extraordinary voting. Furthermore, in this study, the regional distribution of the districts supporting one party over the national average in the two of the elections, at least, three of them and all of them was demonstrated. Therefore, an attempt to provide insight on extraordinary observation discussions on this issue was made by determining which districts became the strongholds of which parties in these elections.
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    From International Sudents to Permanent Migration: A Case Study of COMU
    (Istanbul Univ Press, Istanbul Univ Rectorate, 2019) Kahraman, Selver Ozozen; Gultay, Berrin; Caliskan, Vedat
    International students (IS) constitute an important part of contemporary individual and voluntary migrants. The circulation of IS has seen a continuous increase, as globalization and technological communication networks, bilateral agreements, and international supports increase in their reach. Currently, developing countries are receiving positive benefits from this activity. In this study, reasons related to general preference, nationality, post-educational goals, and the permanence and internal-external migration potential of IS were examined in relation to the preference for COMU. Two types of data were used: (i) official records and statistics and (ii) a survey of IS in COMU. A stratified sampling method was chosen because the countries from where the students came were the most important parameters of the study. Using this method, 64 origin countries were stratified into six groups (Middle East, Asia, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Balkans, Africa, and Other). The data obtained from the 45-question survey administered to 30% of the population at a sensitivity level of 0.10 were evaluated using chi-square and variance analysis. Further, multidimensional scaling was performed to form classifications according to country strata with the selected variables. Thus, the attendance of postgraduate education, the countries among which graduates expect to be distributed, and their persistence and migration potential were found. A significant number of students in COMU have plans to move to a different country for their MA or PhD. The contribution of these students to our country and to the world as potential qualified migrations will continue. Approximately half of the surveyed students are considering pursuing further education (particularly, MS or PhD) and evaluating the employment opportunities in Turkey. Their employment opportunities and cultural adaptation are important factors affecting their decision to stay.
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    Öğe
    Mean square error comparisons of the alternative estimators for the distributed lag models
    (Hacettepe Univ, Fac Sci, 2015) Gultay, Berrin; Kaciranlar, Selahattin
    The finite distributed lag models include highly correlated variables as well as lagged and unlagged values of the same variables. Some problems are faced for this model when applying the ordinary least squares (OLS) method or econometric models such as Almon and Koyck models. The primary aim of this study is to compare the performances of alternative estimators to the OLS estimator defined by combining the Almon estimator with some other estimators according to the mean square error (MSE) criterion. We use Almon [2] data to illustrate our theoretical results.