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Öğe 1980 sonrası Türkiye'de uygulanan politikaların işsizlik üzerine etkileri ve işsizliğin belirleyicileri üzerine ampirik analiz(Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, 2016) Akcan, Ahmet Tayfur; Ener, MelihaUluslararası makroekonomik sıkıntıların ve makroekonomi politika hedeflerinin başında işsizlik gelmektedir. Özellikle 1980 sonrası küreselleşmenin hız kazanmasıyla birlikte işsizlik ülkeler arasında ithal edilebilir boyut kazanmıştır. Bu sebeple uluslararası düzenlemelerde ve politikalarda işsizlik faktörü her zaman için önemle vurgulanmıştır. Türkiye ekonomisi hakkında 1980 yılında alınan kararlar ile ekonomi ithal ikameci sanayileşme stratejisinin terk edilmesi ve ihracata dayalı sanayileşme stratejisinin tercih edilmesiyle birlikte, tarım istihdamının iş gücü piyasasında hakim olmasıyla birlikte, işsizlik dış şoklara karşı daha kırılgan hale gelmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı 1980 sonrası dönemde Türkiye ekonomisinde uygulanan işsizlik politikalarının incelenmesi, işsizliğin yapısında meydana gelen değişikliklerin tespit edilmesi ve işsizliğin belirleyicilerinin analiz edilmesidir. Bu kapsamda 1980 Sonrası Türkiye'de Uygulanan Politikaların İşsizlik Üzerine Etkileri ve İşsizliğin Belirleyicileri Üzerine Ampirik Analiz başlıklı doktora tezimin ilk bölümünde işsizliğe teorik yaklaşımlar incelenmiş, işsizliğin kavramları, işsizlik teorileri ve işsizlik konusunda iktisat ekollerinin yaklaşımları üzerinde durulmuştur. İkinci bölümde ise 1980 sonrası dönemde ekonomide uygulanan işsizlik politikaları analiz edilmiştir. Bu kapsamda ise ilk önce yaşanan ekonomik krizler ve sonrasında uygulanan işsizliği azaltma politikaları incelenmiş, ardından beş yıllık kalkınma planları kapsamında işsizlik konusunda değinilen noktalara yer verilmiştir. Sonra Avrupa Birliği ve Türkiye'de uygulanan işsizliği azaltma politikaları irdelenmiş ve Türkiye'de yürütülen işsizliği azaltma politikalarında İŞKUR'un yeri ve öneminden bahsedilmiş ve son olarak da Türkiye işgücü piyasası çeşitli yönleriyle grafiksel olarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın son bölümünde ise 2000Q1-2015Q3 dönemi için makroekonomik değişkenlere ait verilerin toparlanması ile çeşitli testler yardımıyla işsizliğin belirleyicileri tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Analiz sonucuna göre işsizlikle faiz oranı ve enflasyon oranı arsında çift yönlü nedensellik bulunmuştur. Kredi hacmi, ithalat ve ihracat oranları işsizliğin Granger nedeni, işsizliğin ise Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasılan Granger nedeni olduğu bulunmuştur. Ayrıca varyans ayrıştırması sonucuna göre işsizlikteki değişmeleri açıklama gücü en fazla olan iki değişken reel döviz kuru ve para arzı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bulunan bu sonuçlarla birlikte, işsizliğin diğer makroekonomik değişkenlerdeki şoklara verdiği tepki ise sonuç bölümünde yorumlanmıştır.Yapılan ekonometrik analiz göstermektedir ki, 2008 krizi sonrası işsizlik oranını azaltma için çıkarılan ve maliye politikası kapsamında değerlendirilen politikaların, para politikalarıyla da desteklenmesi gerekmektedir.Öğe Are OECD Countries Converging in Export Diversification? Evidence from PANIC-Fourier Panel Unit Root Test(MDPI, 2025) Ozekicioglu, Halil; Topuz, Huseyin; Kazak, Hasan; Kilic, Cuneyt; Akcan, Ahmet TayfurThis study examines whether OECD countries have converged over time in terms of export diversification. Focusing on the period 1995-2023, the study employs a new Fourier function-enhanced panel unit root test that takes into account gradual changes instead of sudden breaks. The findings show that more than half of OECD countries have not converged in terms of export diversification. Export diversification plays an important role in achieving economic growth and development as well as long-term sustainability goals. In this context, the study provides critical data for policymakers in support of sustainable development goals. The results point to the need to reassess the economic and environmental impacts of export diversification policies in OECD countries.Öğe Are policy shocks to forest products footprint permanent or temporary? Evidence from 128 countries(Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2025) Shahbaz, Muhammad; Akcan, Ahmet Tayfur; Soyyigit, Semanur; Kilic, CueneytSustainable environmental policies are important for future generations to live in a more livable world. Therefore, the environmental damage of the policies implemented is expected to be minimized. In this way, the effects of environmental shocks can be temporary. Rather than analyzing ecological footprint as a deductive approach, analyzing the smaller components that cause ecological footprint will make a different contribution to the literature. For this reason, forest products footprint analysis affecting ecological footprint was investigated. In order to analyze the permanent or temporary nature of environmental shocks, forest product footprint, which is one of the variables used in the calculation of environmental damage, is used for 128 countries covering the period of 1961-2022. We used three different tests in this study. Firstly, the PANIC unit root test, which developed in 2003, secondly the PANIC with sharp breaks test, which developed in 2009 and finally the PANIC with dummy factor break unit root test, which developed in 2022, is used to calculate the permanent and temporary of shocks. According to results of the PANIC with dummy factor break unit root test with two breaks and without trend effect, environmental shocks have a permanent effect in 110 countries and in the model with trend effect, environmental shocks are permanent in 103 countries. In countries where policy shocks are temporary, permanent structural reforms are needed to prevent deforestation.Öğe Determinants of Ecological Footprint in Türkiye: Evidence from the Fourier ARDL Bounds Test Approach(Istanbul Univ, 2024) Torun, Mustafa; Kilic, Cuneyt; Akcan, Ahmet Tayfur; Arik, MuserrefEcological footprint calculations evaluate sustainability by examining natural resources. The ecological footprint obtained by calculating the number of natural resources per person provides information about the amount of waste produced as well as the natural resources consumed and examines the sustainability of living conditions in the world in this respect. The ecological footprint is one of the frequently encountered topics in the literature in terms of the analysis of environmental impacts. This study examines the factors influencing the Ecological Footprint in Turkey. Using annual data between 1980 and 2018, the relationship of renewable energyconsumption, human capital and urbanization variables to the Ecological Footprint is examined. The Fractional Fourier Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test and the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test is used in the study. There is a statistically significant relationship between the renewable energy, human capital and urbanization variables and the Ecological Footprint. When the outputs obtained in the study are examined, it is seen that the variables affect the ecological footprint. The increased value of these variables can be used to explain why the Ecological Footprint increased. Increasing industrialactivities due to globalization and technological developments, increasing vehicle traffic in cities due to population growth, unplanned urbanization and destruction of green areas due to the sheltering needs of the increasing population, inability of recycling facilities to adapt to the increasing population and unplanned waste management, etc. factors can increase the ecological footprint. However, as urbanization increases, if a correct plan is drawn by taking these factors into consideration, the negative correlation between the ecological footprint and urbanization can be explained. Within the determined plan; Wastewater management, protection of green areas, prevention of unplanned urbanization and efficient use of resources are explanatory at this point. The empirical findings have important policy implications. According to these policy implications, to offset the effects on the ecological footprint, educational activities to raise environmental awareness and adopt energy-efficient lifestyles should be given due importance, various incentives and supports should be implemented and a green-based lifestyle.Öğe Does Internet Use Affect Air Pollution? Evidence from OECD Countries(Econjournals, 2024) Kurt, Unzule; Kilic, Cuneyt; Akcan, Ahmet TayfurThis study aims to analyze the relationship between the use of the internet, which has an important place in information and communication, and air pollution (Carbon Dioxide Emissions-CO2). In this context, the relationship between the variables for the 1994-2019 period in 28 OECD countries selected was tested with the help of a panel data analysis with Fourier functions (Fourier unit root test, panel Fourier cointegration test and panel Fourier causality test). The results of the analysis show that internet use reduces air pollution, while economic growth increases air pollution. The results of the Panel Fourier Granger Causality test revealed a bidirectional causality relationship between internet use and air pollution and a unidirectional causality relationship from air pollution to economic growth throughout the panel. The analysis results present a policy proposal to the governments of OECD countries that they can reduce air pollution by investing in information and communication technologies (ICT) in their economic growth processes. © 2024, Econjournals. All rights reserved.Öğe Factors Affecting the Material Footprint in G7 Countries: Panel Cointegration Approach With Fourier Function(Wiley, 2025) Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur; Kilic, Cuneyt; Akcan, Ahmet Tayfur; Kazak, HasanThe material footprint (MFP) is a critical issue due to the pressure on natural resources, environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, and increased greenhouse gas emissions. In the existing literature, the determinants and their impacts on the MFP of G7 countries have not been sufficiently examined. The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of material productivity, energy transition (ET), globalization, economic growth, financial development, and population on the MFP of G7 countries. Using annual data from 1983 to 2021, the panel cointegration technique and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with Fourier function are applied. The results reveal that there are significant but variable causal relationships between the dependent and independent variables specific to each country. Panel cointegration estimates show that renewable energy, economic growth, financial development, and population have a positive effect on MFP, while material productivity, globalization, and the square of economic growth have a negative effect. These findings support the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in the context of MFP. Our study provides policy recommendations to help G7 countries achieve a balance between environmental sustainability and economic growth.Öğe Financial Development, Renewable Energy Consumption and Industrial Output Relation: Testing Fourier ARDL for Turkey(Sciendo, 2024) Kilic, Cuneyt; Akcan, Ahmet Tayfur; Topkaya, Ozgur; Arik, MuserrefEnergy plays a vital role in every aspect of the economy and in recent years renewable energy is highly debated for its pros and cons. While renewable energy consumption is important for sustainable growth and reduction of environmental damage it has some negative effects on the industrial production. The aim of the study is to examine the relationship between renewable energy consumption, financial development and industrial output for Turkey. Annual data between 1980 and 2019 were used in the study. Fractional Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test and the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Tests were used to analyze the relationship between variables. As a result of the study, a positive relationship was found between financial development and renewable energy consumption, while a negative relationship was found between industrial output and renewable energy consumption. Our empirical findings have important policy implications. According to these policy implications, the focus should be on a green-based economy with various subsidies, selective taxation procedures and incentive policies to increase the demand for renewable energy use.Öğe How Does Economic and Monetary Policy Uncertainty Affect Climate Policy Uncertainty in the United States?(Politechnika Lubelska, 2025) Akcan, Ahmet Tayfur; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Kilic, Cuneyt; Kazak, HasanPolicy uncertainties can directly affect the outcomes of policies to be implemented. Therefore, it is important to reduce policy uncertainties. Identifying policy uncertainties and related factors is important in this regard. This study examines the impact of economic and monetary policy uncertainty on climate policy uncertainty in the United States. The relationship between the variables is examined asymmetrically using monthly data for 19882022. First, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test and the Fractional Frequency Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test are applied. The Asymmetric Wavelet Transform Coherence Test is also used to determine the direction and frequency of the relationship between the variables. Asymmetric time-varying causality analysis was used for the causality dimension. The significant relationship between economic policy uncertainty, monetary policy uncertainty and climate policy uncertainty varies at different time periods.Öğe İhracat Değer Endeksi Ve Yatırım İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1982-2017)(Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi, 2019-07-04) Akcan, Ahmet TayfurTürkiye ekonomisinde cari işlemler açığı en önemli dış ticaret sorunlarından biridir. İhracat hacmi ve ihracat gelirleri arasındaki oranı ifade eden ihracat değer endeksi cari açığın kapatılmasında önemli rol oynamaktadır. Çalışmada ihracat değer endeksi ile yatırımlar arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Bu kapsamda 1982-2017 yılları arası yıllık ihracat değer endeksi, kamu yatırımlarının gayri safi yurtiçi hasılaya oranı ve özel yatırımların gayri safi yurt içi hasılaya oranı değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler önce Augmented Dickey Fuller Birim Kök Testi ile birim kökten arındırılarak durağan hale getirilmiştir. Ardından değişkenler VAR analizi yarımı ile Granger Nedensellik Testi ve Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testine tabi tutulmuştur. Çalışmada uygulanan Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testine göre; değişkenler uzun dönemde eşbütünleşiktir. Granger Nedensellik Testi sonucuna göre ise; özel yatırımlar ile ihracat değer endeksi arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi mevcuttur. Kamu yatırımları ile özel yatırımlar veya ihracat değer endeksi arasında ise herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir.Öğe Impact of Global Risk Factors on the Islamic Stock Market: New Evidence from Wavelet Analysis(Springer, 2024) Kazak, Hasan; Saiti, Buerhan; Kilic, Cueneyt; Akcan, Ahmet Tayfur; Karatas, Ali RaufThe emergence of Islamic finance as an alternative financial investment area and the increasing political and economic uncertainty around the world necessitated an examination of the relationship between these two factors. This study examines the impact of four important global uncertainty and risk indicators Global Economic Policy Uncertainty-GEPU, Geopolitical Risk Index-GPR, World Uncertainty Index-WUI, and CBOE Volatility Index-VIX on two important Islamic stock market indices (Dow Jones Islamic Market Index and Bist Participation 100) using wavelet coherence (WTC) and asymmetric Fourier TY analyzes Quarterly data for the period March 2011-June 2023 were used in the study. The results of the analysis show that economic instability indicators impact Islamic equity market indices (both in Turkey and the world). This effect is determined as VIX, GEPU, GPR, and WUI. In addition, the fact that the GPR and WUI indices, which have an impact on conventional markets, have truly little and only a partial impact on Islamic equity markets is an important finding. The results of this study make important contributions to the literature and provide important findings for investors and policy makers.Öğe Is export diversification detrimental to environmental quality? An examination of the roles of green innovation and environmental taxation(Iop Publishing Ltd, 2025) Topuz, Huseyin; Kazak, Hasan; Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur; Kilic, Cuneyt; Akcan, Ahmet Tayfur; Ozekicioglu, HalilThe primary objective of this study is to assess the environmental impact of various factors, including export diversification and GDP, as well as elements believed to facilitate this assessment process, such as green innovation and environmental taxes. The study aims to identify factors that contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions. It analyzes data from 21 European Union (EU) member states for the period from 1995 to 2020, employing the FFFFF panel cointegration test. The findings indicate that export diversification (EXD), environmental taxes (ET), and economic growth (GDP) have a positive effect on CO2 emissions, whereas green innovation (GI) and GDP squared (GDP2) exert a negative influence. These results indicate that export diversification is detrimental to environmental quality. Another significant finding of the study is the validation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Finally, one of the most critical conclusions of the study is the negative impact of green innovation on the volume of CO2 emissions.Öğe Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin İşsizlik İle İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği(Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi, 2018-02) Akcan, Ahmet Tayfur; Ener, MelihaDünya genelinde ülkelerin ekonomik performansını değerlendirme konusundaki makroekonomik kriterlerin başlıcalarından olan işsizlik oranını kontrol altına almak için çeşitli politikalar uygulanmaktadır. Uygulanan bu politikaların sadece işsizliğe yönelik olmasından ziyade, işsizlik üzerinde etkili olan diğer makroekonomik değişkenler üzerinde de etkili olması, işsizliği azaltma konusunda daha kesin ve kalıcı sonuçların alınmasını da beraberinde getirecektir. Bu sebeple doğru ve zamanında uygulanan politikalar ile işsizlik oranı arzulanan seviyede tutulabilecektir. Bu çalışmada 2000Q1-2015Q3 verileri kullanılarak işsizlik oranlarında meydana gelen değişiklikleri ve etkileri açıklamak için varyans ayrıştırması ve etkitepki analizi kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre işsizlik oranlarındaki değişimi en iyi açıklayan değişken reel kurdur. Ayrıca işsizlik oranının enflasyon, büyüme ve ihracata tepkisi her dönem için pozitif ölçülmüştür.Öğe Profitability determinants in Turkish banking: comparing Islamic and conventional banks under inflation and bond rate effects(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2025) Kazak, Hasan; Akcan, Ahmet Tayfur; Kilic, Cuneyt; Kilicarslan, AbdullahPurposeThis study aims to compare the effects of exogenous factors, particularly inflation and bond interest rates, on the profitability of Islamic (participation) and conventional banks in T & uuml;rkiye.Design/methodology/approachThe Fourier function-enhanced Johansen cointegration test was applied to data covering the period 2005/Q1-2023/Q4. The stationarity levels of the variables were determined using the Zivot-Andrews unit root test, followed by a cointegration test, and long-run coefficient estimates were evaluated.FindingsThe results indicate that inflation positively affects bank profitability in both Islamic and conventional banking sectors, whereas bond interest rates have a negative impact. No significant difference was observed between the two banking models in terms of these effects. Furthermore, contrary to existing literature suggesting a positive relationship between bond interest rates and bank profitability, this study provides empirical evidence of a negative long-run impact.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by demonstrating the negative effect of bond interest rates on bank profitability, challenging conventional claims. In addition, it highlights the similar sensitivities of Islamic and conventional banks to macroeconomic factors, providing valuable insights for policymakers. The findings have significant implications for both the Turkish banking sector and the global financial system.Öğe Unemployment hysteresis by gender and youth in the EU: evidence from new factor PANIC unit root tests with breaks(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2024) Yavuz, Ruya Atakli; Kilic, Cuneyt; Akcan, Ahmet TayfurPurposeUnemployment hysteresis is when the unemployment rate increases at the time of an economic shock and does not return to its previous level after the shock. Unemployment hysteresis is one of the most common economic diseases in labour markets. In this study, unemployment hysteresis is investigated for female, male, youth and general unemployment rates of EU countries.Design/methodology/approachThe new factorial PANIC test was employed to ascertain the existence of hysteresis in the labour market in the EU countries between 1991 and 2023.FindingsAlthough there are some countries where the hysteresis effect is not a priori valid, it is generally accepted that the hysteresis effect is valid in most European countries.Practical implicationsIn order to enhance the labour markets of EU countries, it is recommended that active and passive employment policies be implemented in a more comprehensive manner.Originality/valueWhile there are numerous studies that examine the phenomenon of unemployment hysteresis in relation to general unemployment rates, there are only a limited number of studies that examine it in relation to female, male and youth unemployment rates. Another significant contribution of the study is the utilisation of the new factorial PANIC unit root test approach developed by Payne et al. (2022).
