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    Detecting and explaining bubbles in Islamic stock markets: A dual approach with LPPLS and machine learning
    (Borsa Istanbul Anonim Sirketi, 2026) Saritas, Merve Mert; Özgür, Önder; Yilanci, Veli
    This study investigates the presence and predictability of price bubbles in Islamic stock markets, challenging the proposition that their Sharia-compliant principles provide inherent resilience against such phenomena. Employing a dual methodology, we first apply the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model to detect crash periods in the daily Dow Jones Islamic Market indices for Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States from 1996 to 2025. Subsequently, we utilize an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to identify the key macro-financial drivers of these identified bubble episodes. The results from the LPPLS analysis confirm that these indices exhibit significant bubble dynamics. The XGBoost model incorporated imbalance-aware learners and further reveals that the probability of a bubble is systematically linked to a combination of market-based and macroeconomic variables, with the stock price index, intraday volatility, long-term interest rates, and exchange rates emerging as the most significant predictors, albeit with country-specific variations. © 2026 Borsa İstanbul Anonim Şirketi.
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    Disaggregating renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption in the energy growth nexis: Evidence from the panel frequence domain approach in oecd countries
    (IGI Global, 2023) Yılancı, Veli; Aslan, Murat; Özgür, Önder
    The environmentalists argue that climate change is a real threat, and therefore, they believe both developed and developing countries should shift their energy sources from fossil-based to renewable alternatives, including solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower, bio-oils, and ocean power to sustain economic growth. In this context, this study investigates the causal relationship between two sets of pairs-(i) renewable energy consumption and economic growth and (ii) nonrenewable energy consumption-and economic growth for 16 OECD countries for the 1971-2015 period. To fulfill thisobjective, the study employs a recently introduced frequency domain approach in.
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    Unemployment and Labour Force Participation in South Korea: Johansen-Type Cointegration Analysis with a Fourier Approach
    (Prague Univ Economics And Business, 2024) Yılancı, Veli; Özgür, Önder
    This study examines the long-run relationship between the unemployment rate and labour force participation rate in South Korea from June 1999 to January 2023. The study utilizes the traditional Johansen cointegration test and augments it with Fourier terms to control for an unknown number of breaks in the cointegration system. The empirical findings suggest a significant long-run relationship between the unemployment rate and labour force participation rate in South Korea, which provides evidence against the unemployment invariance hypothesis. The study also finds evidence of the discouraged-worker effect for males and the added-worker effect for females. The findings of this study have important implications for policymakers in creating more effective plans to lower unemployment and foster economic growth in South Korea. This study contributes to the literature by clarifying the validity of the unemployment invariance hypothesis in the South Korean economy, which is regarded as a growth miracle in the literature. Instead of using the standard configuration of dummy variables, the Johansen cointegration technique now has the ability to adjust for an unknown number of multiple structural breaks in the cointegration system.