Ursavas, UgurYilanci, VeliGhosh, Sudeshna2025-05-292025-05-2920250424-267X1842-3264https://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/59.1.25.07https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12428/30068This study analyses the relationship between tourism and economic growth in T & uuml;rkiye, taking a novel approach by considering the impact of geopolitical risk. Using monthly data from 1996 to 2022, we disaggregate tourism markets based on countries' geopolitical risk levels. By employing a fuzzy clustering technique, we reveal how the tourism-growth nexus varies across different geopolitical risk clusters. Furthermore, we utilise Fourier-Toda-Yamamoto Causality test to analyse the causal relationship across short, medium, and long-term horizons. Our findings reveal a consistent tourism-led growth pattern in all countries regardless of geopolitical risk, highlighting the significant role of tourism in the Turkish economy. However, the study uncovers crucial nuances within the tourism-growth relationship, demonstrating a feedback effect in the short run and varying causal relationships across different time horizons. This study contributes to the literature by explicitly incorporating geopolitical risk into the analysis of tourism-led growth, providing valuable insights for policy makers in T & uuml;rkiye.eninfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesstourism-led growth hypothesisgeopolitical riskfuzzy clusteringFourier causalityT & uuml;rkiyeArticle59110411910.24818/18423264/59.1.25.07Q3WOS:0014553639000072-s2.0-105001264300Q3